Week of 8 July 2026
Wednesday, 8 July 2026
A fairly typical July zonal flow sits over the Po Valley this week, but a warm bump riding through it — 500 hPa heights running about 21 m above the seasonal mean and still building — is enough to push temperatures well above normal and keep the air heavy with moisture. This is not a classic heat-dome setup, but the effect on the ground is much the same: highs in the low-to-upper 30s, sticky dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s, and afternoon convection firing off the Apennines and Alps most days as the atmosphere destabilises in the heat. It’s a rough stretch if you don’t love heat and humidity — the week averages out to just 1.3 out of 10 on the comfort scale here, frankly not a great one.
Confidence is genuinely mixed rather than cleanly split by midweek: Thursday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday sit at medium confidence, while Friday, Saturday and next Wednesday all carry low confidence, either because guidance disagrees on the peak heat or because storm coverage and timing are hard to pin down this far out. Both the low-confidence spread days (Friday and next Wednesday) show real model disagreement on the top-end number, and Saturday’s low confidence comes from a wide ensemble spread on both temperature and rainfall rather than a clean signal either way.
Thursday (34-24) — 2/10: Sunny and hot, running about 4.5°C above the seasonal average for the date, with humid air (afternoon dewpoints near 20°C) and an isolated storm or two possible off the higher ground later in the day. Rough one for comfort.
Friday (36-23) — 1/10: Guidance disagrees on the peak here — anywhere from 34°C to 37°C, with the ensemble spread running roughly 33°C to 37°C — and rain chances are up a notch too, with about a quarter of the ensemble bringing measurable precipitation. Humid and hot either way; an isolated storm can’t be ruled out.
Saturday (32-23) — 1/10: Confidence is low, and this one has real spread: the ensemble ranges from around 30°C to 36°C, and well over half the members bring rain. Dewpoints climb to a properly oppressive 22.5°C, and a more organized round of storms looks possible in the afternoon or evening — the muggiest day of the week.
Sunday (32-22) — 1/10: Still oppressive, with afternoon dewpoints near 21°C and roughly half the ensemble bringing rain. A more organized storm complex is possible again as the atmosphere destabilises off the high ground.
Monday (34-23) — 2/10: Hot and humid, near 4°C above the July norm for the date, with an isolated storm or two possible in the afternoon. Better odds of staying dry than the weekend, but still sticky.
Tuesday (37-23) — 1/10: Running close to 7°C above the seasonal average — one of the hottest days of the week — with humid air and an isolated storm chance off the mountains. Tough one if you’re heat-sensitive.
Wednesday (38-22) — 1/10: Confidence is low and guidance disagrees sharply on the ceiling, anywhere from 37°C to as high as 41.5°C, with the ensemble spread running roughly 33°C to 39°C. Humid, close to 8°C above normal for the date, and an isolated storm can’t be ruled out — likely the hottest, least comfortable day on the board.
Week two
The pattern shows signs of breaking down further out: modelled 500 hPa heights ease from around 5871 m this week to about 5815 m in days 8-14, a drop of roughly 56 m, with the jet moving closer to the region and 300 hPa winds strengthening markedly (up to around 44 m/s versus about 25 m/s this week). That points toward a more unsettled, less blocked pattern, though it’s still expected to run warm — likely ranges cluster in the high 20s to high 30s most days, with anomalies of roughly +2 to +5°C above the seasonal mean. Rain chances tick up modestly, with precipitation probabilities generally in the high teens to low 30s percent and only a minority of ensemble members bringing measurable totals — but this far out, and with confidence rated low throughout, treat it as a general trend rather than a forecast.
Tl;dr: Expect a hot, humid, storm-prone week with highs widely in the low-to-upper 30s and only modest afternoon relief from scattered convection, easing only slightly — and uncertainly — as a more unsettled pattern tries to take over in week two.
The fortnight at a glance
Weather data by Open-Meteo.com. Models: ecmwf_ifs025, icon_seamless, gfs_seamless, meteofrance_seamless, best_match. Generated 2026-07-08 17:13 CEST. This is a hobby forecast, not a substitute for official ARPAE / Protezione Civile warnings.