Week of 12 July 2026
Sunday, 12 July 2026
Warning: this outlook did not pass automated fact-checking against the underlying data. Read with extra skepticism.
A word of warning before we even get into it: this is about as rough a week as the ratings system gets, with a week-average score of just 1.1 out of 10. Bologna is locked under strong high pressure, with 500 hPa heights running about 24 metres above average and a healthy jet nearby, and while the pattern trend is technically “breaking,” that breakdown looks gradual — meaning the worst of the heat comes first, before things ease back only slightly by the weekend.
Last week’s outlook held up reasonably well on temperature but underplayed a couple of showers. Thursday (9 July) was forecast near 34.1°C and came in at 32.9°C, about a degree cooler than expected. Friday (10 July) was forecast at 35.7°C but topped out at 34.4°C, again about a degree cooler, and the 77% rain chance verified with 1.8 mm falling. Saturday (11 July) ran warmer than expected — forecast at 31.9°C, observed at 34.2°C, a miss of over 2 degrees — and its forecasted rain chance (76%) also verified, with 2.6 mm recorded.
The headline for this week is the heat itself: Monday and Tuesday are both high-confidence, genuinely dangerous days, with Tuesday’s consensus high near 38-39°C running nearly 9 degrees above the climatological average for the date. Wednesday may be even hotter on paper, but that’s also where confidence craters — guidance splits hard on both temperature and rain, and from there the rest of the week stays murky, still hot, still humid, with only a slow, uncertain easing of the anomaly as the days go by.
Monday (35-23) — 1/10: Oppressively humid with afternoon dewpoints near 22°C and a high confidently around 35°C, nearly 5 degrees above the climatological average for the date; an isolated storm or two can’t be ruled out off the higher terrain later in the day. Miserable, honestly.
Tuesday (39-25) — 1/10: Another confidently hot one, likely near 38-39°C and almost 9 degrees above average for mid-July, with muggy air and an isolated storm or two possible in the afternoon. Still miserable.
Wednesday (39-23) — 1/10: Confidence is low here — guidance splits sharply, anywhere from 36°C to 40°C, and the ensemble spread on rainfall is wide too, from essentially nothing up to 47 mm if a wetter solution wins out. Humid and unsettled-feeling either way, with an isolated storm or two possible.
Thursday (36-24) — 1/10: Another low-confidence day with real model disagreement — highs could run anywhere from the low 30s to upper 30s, and around a third of the ensemble now brings measurable rain. Humid, oppressive-adjacent, and an isolated storm or two can’t be ruled out.
Friday (34-24) — 1/10: Confidence is low this far out, with a likely high near the mid-30s but a spread reaching into the upper 30s; oppressive humidity continues and around a quarter of the ensemble carries some rain, so an isolated storm or two is possible.
Saturday (33-23) — 1/10: Widely uncertain again, roughly low-to-upper 30s depending on which member you trust, still oppressively humid, with an isolated storm or two possible in the afternoon.
Sunday (34-24) — 2/10: Confidence remains low, likely somewhere in the mid-to-upper 30s, humid, with an isolated storm or two possible — marginally the least bad day of the week, for whatever that’s worth.
Week two
The zonal pattern looks to hold into days 8-14, with 500 hPa heights still running above average and the jet staying nearby, though the anomaly eases somewhat compared to this week. If the ensembles are right, highs likely continue in a broad low-to-upper 30s range most days, generally 1-3.5°C above the climatological averages for late July, with no single day standing out as a clear break. Rain chances stay modest and inconsistent, mostly in the 6-28% range with only a minority of ensemble members bringing meaningful precipitation on any given day — so a stray shower or storm remains possible, but a widespread wash-out doesn’t look likely this far out.
Tl;dr: Brace for a genuinely oppressive, near-40°C stretch through midweek with only slow, uncertain relief after that — this is not a comfortable week to be outdoors in the afternoon.
The fortnight at a glance
Weather data by Open-Meteo.com. Models: ecmwf_ifs025, icon_seamless, gfs_seamless, meteofrance_seamless, best_match. Generated 2026-07-12 04:56 EDT. This is a hobby forecast, not a substitute for official ARPAE / Protezione Civile warnings.