Week of 13 July 2026
Monday, 13 July 2026
A serious heat spike is locked in for the first half of this week, with the atmosphere running well above normal and humidity making it feel even worse than the thermometer says. There’s a jet stream nearby and the pattern is technically “zonal” and “breaking” aloft, but at the surface that just means one very hot, very sticky airmass grinding through Tuesday into Saturday before something closer to normal finally elbows in by Monday. Frankly, this is not a great week to be outside much — the week’s average rating comes in at just 2.3 out of 10, and it shows.
The core of the heat runs Tuesday through Saturday, with consensus highs consistently in the mid-to-upper 30s and afternoon dew points climbing into the low-to-mid 20s — properly oppressive, and on Friday the combination of heat and moisture pushes into what the data flags outright as a “hellscape” comfort category. Confidence on the exact peak numbers erodes as the week goes on: Thursday through Saturday all show real model disagreement, with guidance spread of several degrees on the high and a wide range on rainfall too. The one recurring bright spot in the pattern is the daily chance of afternoon convection firing off the Apennines and Alps — mostly isolated, but Sunday’s setup looks more organized, with a slug of cooler air trying to work in behind it.
By Monday the pattern loosens its grip: temperatures drop back near (and even slightly below) the seasonal average, and dew points fall enough to make it a genuinely pleasant day — a sharp contrast to everything before it.
Tuesday (36-25) — 2/10: Sunny and brutally hot, running about 7°C above the seasonal average, with humid air (afternoon dew points near 20°C) making the 36°C reading feel closer to 38°C; an isolated storm or two can’t be ruled out. Miserable.
Wednesday (37-25) — 1/10: Even hotter, likely near 37°C but feeling closer to 41°C with oppressive humidity; about a third of the ensemble now brings measurable rain, mostly tied to isolated afternoon storms. Rough one.
Thursday (35-24) — 1/10: Guidance disagrees on the peak, anywhere from 34°C to 39°C, and confidence is low this far out; oppressive humidity continues and an isolated storm or two remains possible off the higher terrain. Still miserable.
Friday (36-24) — 1/10: Widely uncertain, with model spread running from 36°C to 41°C, but whatever the exact number, the feels-like temperature near 42°C in “hellscape” humidity is the real story here; isolated storms can’t be ruled out. About as bad as it gets.
Saturday (36-23) — 1/10: Another low-confidence day with guidance spread from 34°C to 40°C, oppressive humidity persisting, and the chance of an isolated afternoon storm off the Apennines. No real relief yet.
Sunday (32-23) — 2/10: Close to seasonal normal on the thermometer for once, but still oppressively humid, and this is the day a more organized round of storms looks possible — over half the ensemble now brings measurable rain, with a 50% precipitation probability. Confidence in timing is low.
Monday (31-21) — 8/10: Finally a break — near or just below the seasonal average, dew points dropping to a much more comfortable level, and no convective flag on the table. Yes, it’s very good!!
Week two
The building trough behind this week’s heat (height anomaly running notably below average) suggests a brief step back toward near-normal or slightly below-normal temperatures around July 21-22, with likely highs in roughly the 27-34°C range and only modest rain chances (around 17-29% at most, if the ensembles are right). But the signal fades quickly: by midweek (July 23-24) the range shifts warmer, and from July 25 onward temperatures trend increasingly above average again, with likely ranges creeping toward the upper 20s to upper 30s and anomalies running +3°C or more — so any relief looks temporary. Rain chances are low and don’t show a clean trend: they bottom out around July 24 (as low as 6%) before edging back up to around 14% for the final few days covered, all of it still highly uncertain this far out.
Tl;dr: Brace for a stretch of oppressive, humid, upper-30s heat with only isolated storm chances through Saturday, with the first real relief arriving Monday — and even that break may not last long into week two.
The fortnight at a glance
Weather data by Open-Meteo.com. Models: ecmwf_ifs025, icon_seamless, gfs_seamless, meteofrance_seamless, best_match. Generated 2026-07-13 19:53 CEST. This is a hobby forecast, not a substitute for official ARPAE / Protezione Civile warnings.