Week of 19 July 2026
Sunday, 19 July 2026
Warning: this outlook did not pass automated fact-checking against the underlying data. Read with extra skepticism.
The zonal flow overhead is in the process of breaking down this week, with the jet stream running close enough by (max 300 hPa winds near 46 m/s) to keep firing up organized storm chances on a couple of afternoons rather than settling into a clean, quiet ridge. It’s a genuinely mixed week for it — the week’s average rating sits at just 5.4 out of 10 — with a humid, storm-prone start, a very pleasant midweek-to-weekend stretch, and then a hot, unsettled wobble to close things out on Sunday.
Last week’s outlook ran consistently too warm. Highs were overforecast every day, with the worst miss on Friday the 17th — 36.0°C was called for, but Bologna only topped out at 32.4°C, a 3.6-degree overshoot. The other days were closer, generally 1-2 degrees too hot, and the rain call on the 15th (45% chance, 9.8mm observed) verified reasonably well.
Humidity is the real story for the first half of this week. Monday and especially Tuesday turn muggy to outright oppressive, with afternoon dew points near 20-22°C feeding organized storm chances off the Apennines and Alps. Things dry out and become notably more comfortable by Thursday into the weekend, before humidity creeps back up again as Sunday’s heat spike arrives.
Monday (32-24) — 3/10: Humid and close, with the feels-like reading around 34°C running well above the actual high, and a more organized round of storms looks possible in the afternoon — a rough one for comfort.
Tuesday (26-21) — 3/10: Confidence is low here — guidance splits sharply, with highs anywhere from 26°C to 33°C, and it’s an oppressive, sticky day either way with a more organized round of storms possible and a good two-thirds chance of rain.
Wednesday (29-20) — 6/10: Still humid but easing back, with an isolated storm or two possible in the afternoon; a decent, unremarkable day.
Thursday (30-19) — 6/10: Warm and noticeably less soupy, isolated storms can’t be ruled out, and rain chances run a touch higher again at 52%; still a decent one.
Friday (28-20) — 8/10: The pick of the week — comfortable-leaning dew points, no organized convection flagged, and a high near 28°C. Very good!!
Saturday (31-18) — 8/10: Warm but genuinely comfortable humidity, dew points down near 15°C, and rain chances are low. Yes, it’s very good!!
Sunday (33-21) — 4/10: Confidence is low again as the heat builds — likely near 33°C but guidance allows for anywhere up to 36°C, and the feels-like reading near 35°C makes it feel worse than the numbers suggest; a more organized round of storms looks possible too.
Week two
The pattern trend for days 8-14 shows heights running about 55 metres below average early on before attempting to build back — consistent with the zonal flow gradually giving way to something more ridge-like again, though this is all still low-confidence territory this far out. Temperatures look to start a touch below normal in the 27-28 July window before trending warmer through early August, with ensemble spreads widening considerably (some days show a 10-degree range between the 10th and 90th percentile). Rain chances look modest and generally declining through the period, though with meaningful ensemble disagreement on how much, if any, actually falls.
Tl;dr: A humid, storm-prone start gives way to a genuinely pleasant, drier Thursday-through-Saturday stretch, before Sunday turns hot and unsettled again with low confidence on just how hot.
The fortnight at a glance
Weather data by Open-Meteo.com. Models: ecmwf_ifs025, icon_seamless, gfs_seamless, meteofrance_seamless, best_match. Generated 2026-07-19 06:06 EDT. This is a hobby forecast, not a substitute for official ARPAE / Protezione Civile warnings.