Week of 26 July 2026
Sunday, 26 July 2026
Warning: this outlook did not pass automated fact-checking against the underlying data. Read with extra skepticism.
A significant heat ridge is building over the Po Valley this week, and it’s not a subtle one: 500 hPa heights are running about 65m above normal, and by Friday and Saturday the anomaly at the surface reaches 7.9 and 8.2°C above the seasonal average — 2.4 and 2.7 standard deviations out, respectively. That’s genuinely extreme for late July/early August. Highs climb from the mid-30s Monday to a projected peak near 40°C on Saturday before easing back slightly Sunday. It’s not a great week for comfort — the week’s average rating sits at 4.9/10 — though there’s an interesting wrinkle: the muggiest, most oppressive air is actually earlier in the week (Tuesday’s dew point near 22°C), while the hottest days later on turn drier at the surface, more of a classic baked, low-humidity heat by the weekend.
Last week’s outlook ran consistently a touch too warm: forecast highs for the 22nd, 23rd and 25th missed low by around 2°C each, and the 24th and 20th were closer (within a degree or so). On the rain side, it was a mixed bag — the 20th’s 52% chance actually did verify with 2.2mm falling, and the 21st’s 65% call undersold what arrived (21.4mm came down, well above what was expected). The one true bust was the 23rd, where a 52% precipitation chance fizzled to nothing.
Confidence is decent for the first two days but drops off notably from Wednesday onward — model guidance is split on exactly how hot this ridge gets, with spreads widening to several degrees by the Thursday-Saturday peak. Afternoon convection off the Apennines stays a low-grade, isolated-storm risk on several days, but this is fundamentally a heat story, not a rain story — nearly every day this week carries a low probability of measurable precipitation.
Monday (33.5-22.8) — 6/10: Hot and humid, dew points near 21°C keep it sticky, an isolated storm or two can’t be ruled out in the afternoon. Running about 1.8°C above the seasonal average — decent enough if you can handle the mugginess.
Tuesday (33.7-21.8) — 4/10: Oppressive is the word — the muggiest day of the week, and the feels-like climbs to around 36°C against a 33.7°C actual high, the biggest gap of the week. About 15% of the ensemble brings some rain, and an isolated storm is possible. Rough one.
Wednesday (35.8-21.8) — 4/10: Guidance disagrees on the peak, anywhere from 32.4°C to 37.4°C — confidence is low this far out. Still oppressive humidity-wise, and running well above normal (roughly 4.7°C above average). Another tough day.
Thursday (37.6-22.8) — 5/10: Models split again, with highs ranging from 34.4°C to 38.5°C — low confidence, but it’s trending seriously hot either way, about 6.2°C above the climatological norm. Humid but not quite oppressive.
Friday (39.3-23.6) — 5/10: The spread here is wide — 36.6°C to 41.7°C — so treat any single number loosely, but this looks like a serious heat day regardless, nearly 8°C above average. Humidity actually eases a bit versus earlier in the week.
Saturday (40.1-23.3) — 4/10: Likely the hottest day of the week, and the anomaly is the sharpest yet — about 8.2°C above normal. Comfort improves to merely “noticeable” as dew points drop, but the raw heat itself (feels-like near 41°C) makes this a rough one. An isolated storm can’t be ruled out.
Sunday (38.5-23.9) — 6/10: Still very hot, but the driest air of the week — dew points down near 16°C — makes it feel a touch more bearable, and confidence is better here (medium tier). Isolated storm chance persists, with roughly a quarter of the precipitation probability. Not bad, all things considered!
Week two
The pattern shows signs of breaking down: the 500 hPa height anomaly eases from today’s +65m ridge to just +15m by days 8-14, with a more zonal, jet-influenced setup taking over. Early in that window (around 3-4 August) the ensemble still points to serious heat, with likely ranges in the high 30s to low 40s and anomalies near 6-7°C above normal, but by the end of the window (7-9 August) the likely ranges widen and shift cooler — down toward the high 20s to high 30s, with anomalies easing to around 2.7°C above average. Rain chances also creep up later in the window, with precipitation probabilities and ensemble member fractions both rising toward the 7th, though this is all still low-confidence, this far out.
Tl;dr: A serious, building heatwave runs through the week with highs pushing toward 40°C by Friday/Saturday — muggiest early on, drier but still brutally hot by the weekend — with only tentative signs of relief arriving in the second week.
The fortnight at a glance
Weather data by Open-Meteo.com. Models: ecmwf_ifs025, icon_seamless, gfs_seamless, meteofrance_seamless, best_match. Generated 2026-07-26 04:08 EDT. This is a hobby forecast, not a substitute for official ARPAE / Protezione Civile warnings.