Week of 2 August 2026
Sunday, 2 August 2026
A stubborn heat dome is parked over the Po Valley to open the week, with Monday through Thursday all running roughly 1.8 to 2.1 standard deviations above the climatological mean for early August — a serious anomaly for a location where the typical high this time of year sits in the low 30s. The pattern is technically “zonal” aloft, but the height anomaly is positive and the trend field says this ridge is breaking down by the weekend, which lines up with the cooling and rising uncertainty you’ll see from Friday onward. It’s not a great week to be outside much: the week’s average score comes in at just 1.4 out of 10.
Last week’s outlook ran a bit too hot in its own right: Thursday was called for 36.9°C and topped out at 33.9°C, Friday and Saturday were both forecast near 38.5°C but only reached 36.0°C. So if anything, the models have been overshooting recently — worth keeping in mind as you read the scorching numbers below, though the anomalies here are large enough that even a few degrees of downward correction still leaves a brutal stretch.
Monday (38-25) — 2/10: Extreme heat with humid air pushing the afternoon dew point to 19°C — this one’s capped hard by the heat itself, plain and simple.
Tuesday (39-24) — 1/10: Even hotter, with the feels-like high near 41°C running noticeably above the thermometer reading; an isolated storm or two can’t be ruled out but this is a heat day through and through.
Wednesday (39-24) — 1/10: Essentially the peak of the ridge, apparent high pushing 42°C in humid air; an isolated storm or two is possible in the afternoon but the story is unmistakably the heat.
Thursday (40-25) — 1/10: Guidance is consistent that this is another brutal one, feels-like around 41-42°C, dew points easing slightly but still noticeable — no relief in sight yet.
Friday (34-24) — 1/10: Model disagreement kicks in here, with tmax guidance splitting anywhere from 34°C to 41°C; comfort is oppressive with dew points near 22°C, and an isolated storm or two is possible. Even at the cooler end of that spread it’s still a rough, muggy day.
Saturday (32-23) — 2/10: Confidence is low with a wide spread, tmax guidance ranging from about 30°C to 40°C — the ridge may finally be cracking, but oppressive humidity lingers and an isolated storm or two remains possible.
Sunday (35-23) — 2/10: Still low confidence, with guidance splitting wildly from the mid-20s to nearly 41°C; roughly a third of the ensemble now brings measurable rain, a sign the pattern is trying to break down, with an isolated storm or two possible along the way.
Week two
The ridge that’s dominating this week looks to relax somewhat into days 8-14, with ensemble medians settling into the low-to-mid 30s rather than the high 30s/near-40s seen this week, though the likely ranges stay wide (roughly upper 20s to upper 30s on most days) given this far out. Anomalies ease toward a more modest +0.3 to +0.8 standard deviations above climatology rather than the +1.8 to +2.1 seen early this week. Rain chances tick up a bit compared with the driest days of week one, with precipitation probabilities mostly in the high teens to low 30s and roughly a quarter to a third of ensemble members bringing some rain on several days — nothing like a clear wash-out, but a hint that the pattern is loosening its grip.
Tl;dr: This is a genuinely dangerous, oppressive heat stretch through Thursday with highs well above the seasonal norm, and while the ridge starts to break down and grow more uncertain by the weekend, meaningful relief isn’t clearly locked in yet.
The fortnight at a glance
Weather data by Open-Meteo.com. Models: ecmwf_ifs025, icon_seamless, gfs_seamless, meteofrance_seamless, best_match. Generated 2026-08-02 03:04 EDT. This is a hobby forecast, not a substitute for official ARPAE / Protezione Civile warnings.