Brontoskopos

A strong ridge is building over the Po Valley this week — heights running about 33m above normal at 500hPa and still climbing — and it’s translating into a genuinely oppressive stretch of heat and humidity rather than the drier, more comfortable kind of ridge you sometimes get in August. The week averages out to a 2/10, and that’s not an accident: this is a run of days where the story is heat, sticky dewpoints, and the odd pop-up storm off the Apennines, not a single standout afternoon.

Last week’s outlook ran a touch too warm both days it covered: Monday’s forecast of 38.1°C came in at 36.1°C (about 2 degrees cooler than expected), and Tuesday’s forecast of 39.0°C landed at 37.9°C. Both stayed dry as expected.

Thursday (39-27) — 1/10: Confidence is high on this one — topping out around 39°C, with the feels-like reading running even hotter at 41.1°C. That’s extreme heat territory that caps the score outright regardless of humidity or wind; an isolated storm or two can’t be ruled out in the afternoon but it should stay mostly dry. Rough one to be outside for.

Friday (36-25) — 2/10: Should reach the mid-to-upper 30s, likely near 36°C, but it’ll feel more like 39°C with the humid air in place. An isolated storm or two is possible again, and this is actually the best rain chance of the week — about four in ten ensemble members bring some measurable precipitation, with a median around 1.3mm. Still miserable on the comfort side.

Saturday (34-22) — 3/10: Guidance disagrees here, with the high anywhere from 33°C to 38°C depending on the model, and rainfall totals spanning a wide 0 to 6.5mm — an isolated storm or two remains possible. Humid regardless of exactly how hot it gets.

Sunday (36-24) — 2/10: Another low-confidence day with real model spread, ranging from 35°C to as high as 40°C. Humid air stays locked in place and an isolated storm can’t be ruled out, though this is actually one of the drier days on paper.

Monday (35-25) — 2/10: Confidence is low again — the spread runs from 34°C to a possible 40°C — with a light, patchy rain chance (median just 0.6mm) and the same humid, storm-watch pattern continuing.

Tuesday (36-25) — 1/10: Likely around 36°C, but the air turns genuinely oppressive here — the muggiest comfort reading of the week — and the feels-like high of 38°C only adds to it. An isolated storm or two is possible in the afternoon. One of the toughest days of the stretch.

Wednesday (37-24) — 3/10: Likely near 37°C with a slightly less brutal “noticeable” humidity level than the days before it, which helps it edge up off the floor a bit. No organized storm signal here, just lingering heat.

The fortnight at a glance

Week two

The building ridge looks to break down further out, with height anomalies easing back toward near-normal by the second half of next week and the jet stream nudging closer to the region — a sign the pattern is loosening its grip, though this is all still low-confidence, ensemble-range territory. Early in the period (around August 13-15) heat looks likely to persist, with likely highs still commonly reaching the mid-to-upper 30s and rain chances modest. By around August 17-19, if the ensembles are right, the range widens dramatically toward more seasonable levels — likely highs anywhere from the mid-20s to upper 30s — with a growing (though still uncertain) chance of rain as the ridge relaxes.

Tl;dr: A stubborn, building heat ridge makes for a rough, sticky week with highs frequently near or above 35°C (peaking around 39°C Thursday) and only isolated storm chances for relief, though there are early hints the pattern eases by the second week.

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com. Models: ecmwf_ifs025, icon_seamless, gfs_seamless, meteofrance_seamless, best_match. Generated 2026-08-05 13:29 CEST. This is a hobby forecast, not a substitute for official ARPAE / Protezione Civile warnings.