Brontoskopos

Warning: this outlook did not pass automated fact-checking against the underlying data. Read with extra skepticism.

A significant heat wave is gripping Bologna this week, and it isn’t going anywhere fast — every single day carries a rating of 4/10 or worse, with the week averaging just 2.6/10. The pattern aloft is technically zonal with a modest height anomaly (+26m), and that ridge is nominally “breaking” through the week, but you’d hardly know it from the numbers: tmax anomalies run 4-7.5°C above the mid-August average nearly every day, and feels-like temperatures repeatedly push toward 38-40°C thanks to sticky dew points early on. There’s a bit of a wobble in the middle — Friday brings noticeably drier air — but the heat itself never really lets go.

Last week’s outlook ran a touch warm across the board: Tuesday’s forecast of 39.0°C verified at 37.8°C, Wednesday’s 35.7°C call came in at 34.8°C, and by the following Sunday the miss widened to 2.3°C (35.9°C forecast versus 33.6°C observed). Rain also proved fickle — Thursday’s 69% precipitation chance delivered 7.1mm, while Friday’s much higher 81% chance produced nothing at all. Worth keeping in mind as you read the numbers below: guidance has been trending a shade too hot, and rain chances haven’t been especially reliable predictors this stretch.

Tuesday (38-26) — 2/10: Brutal heat holds on, with highs likely near 38°C and a feels-like temperature near 40°C (39.8°C) — that near two-degree gap tells you how oppressive the humidity is, with dew points around 18°C keeping things sticky. An isolated storm or two can’t be ruled out. Running some 7.5°C above the mid-August norm, this is exactly the extreme-heat scenario that caps a score however calm or dry things otherwise look.

Wednesday (35-25) — 2/10: Confidence drops here — guidance disagrees on the peak, anywhere from 34.4°C to the upper 30s (as high as 38.6°C), with the broader ensemble spread running 32.6°C to 39.3°C. Whatever the exact number, it’s another humid, oppressive day (dew points near 20°C) with an isolated storm possible, and heat this severe keeps the score pinned down regardless.

Thursday (36-23) — 2/10: Highs should reach the mid-30s, near 36°C, with the feels-like running noticeably warmer at 38.4°C. Humidity is “noticeable” rather than outright brutal, but an isolated storm off the high ground can’t be ruled out in the afternoon, and the heat itself — about 5.4°C above average — is still the main story here.

Friday (36-22) — 4/10: A genuinely better day on the humidity front — dew points fall to a comfortable 14°C, and the feels-like temperature (36.5°C) barely exceeds the actual high for once. Still firmly hot, likely near 36°C and roughly 6.5°C above the seasonal average, but no organized storm threat and the drier air earns this one the week’s best score.

Saturday (38-21) — 3/10: Confidence is low this far out — guidance splits anywhere from 35.0°C to 39.4°C, with the wider ensemble spread running 33.8°C to 38.6°C. Dew points drop to a genuinely dry 12.4°C, which helps a bit, but the heat anomaly is the largest of the week (about 7.5°C above normal), and that alone keeps the score low.

Sunday (36-23) — 2/10: Highs likely near 36°C, but the feels-like climbs to 38°C — a real gap that puts humidity (dew points near 18°C) alongside the heat as the story. An isolated storm or two remains possible, with a modest 0.6mm median precipitation take if anything develops. Still a scorcher, about 5.7°C above average.

Monday (35-25) — 3/10: Confidence is low here with only a handful of models weighing in — highs are probably near 35°C, but the spread beneath that is real. Nearly half the ensemble (41%) brings measurable rain, with the precipitation probability climbing to 53% — the best shot at any relief all week — and a median take of 0.6mm if it does show up. An isolated storm or two looks likely in the afternoon, and humidity stays noticeable.

The fortnight at a glance

Week two

Days 8-14 actually show the atmosphere’s dynamics building rather than relaxing — the zonal flow strengthens with a jet moving into range, a real change from this week’s more sluggish, blocked-up setup. Encouragingly, that more active pattern looks to also break the heat: temperature anomalies fall back close to climatology (mostly under 1°C above average, one day even running slightly below), with likely highs this far out spanning a wide 26°C to 39°C range and ensemble medians clustering in the low 30s — a clear step down from this week’s 35-38°C days. Rain chances stay modest but present, roughly 19-47% depending on the day with 23-50% of ensemble members carrying measurable precipitation; nothing to hang plans on yet, but the extreme heat does look to ease as the pattern reorganizes.

Tl;dr: It’s a genuinely rough, oppressively hot week with highs in the mid-to-upper 30s and feels-like values flirting with 40°C most days, easing only slightly by Friday’s drier air — plan around the heat, not the modest rain chances.

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com. Models: ecmwf_ifs025, icon_seamless, gfs_seamless, meteofrance_seamless, best_match. Generated 2026-08-09 22:36 EDT. This is a hobby forecast, not a substitute for official ARPAE / Protezione Civile warnings.