Brontoskopos

A hot, sticky, and increasingly unsettled pattern holds over the Po Valley this week. A ridge is building overhead even as a strong jet nearby keeps stirring up afternoon convection, so the story isn’t just heat — it’s heat with thunderstorm risk, peaking with a genuinely dangerous Wednesday before things trend slightly cooler and more shower-prone toward the weekend. It’s not a great week for outdoor plans, if I’m honest — the average score for the week sits at just 3.1/10.

Last week’s outlook ran too warm across the board. Highs were forecast in the mid-to-upper 30s each day but generally verified a few degrees cooler: the 11th was forecast at 37.7°C and came in at 36.1°C (a 1.6°C miss), while the 12th through 15th missed by more, in the 2.2–3.8°C range. None of the forecast rain materialized either — precip probabilities as high as 62% produced essentially no measurable rainfall all week.

This week continues the pattern of forecast heat outpacing what actually shows up, but with two added wrinkles: humidity is oppressive most days, and organized afternoon storm chances are on the table more days than not, typical of high summer convection running off instability rather than any real frontal passage.

Monday (34-23) — 1/10: Confidence is low and guidance splits hard on the peak, anywhere from 31°C to 35°C, but with a feels-like near 37°C and oppressive dewpoints near 24°C, a more organized round of storms looks possible by afternoon. Miserable, and not just because of the storm risk.

Tuesday (34-21) — 4/10: Humid and warm, likely near 34°C, with the air feeling closer to 35°C; an isolated storm or two can’t be ruled out in the afternoon. Rough, sticky, unremarkable.

Wednesday (36-22) — 1/10: The hottest day of the week and it’s not close — topping out around 36°C with a feels-like near 39°C, well above the actual thermometer reading, and running about 5°C above the seasonal average. An isolated storm or two is possible, but the heat itself is the whole story here. Miserable.

Thursday (34-23) — 2/10: Confidence is low, with highs anywhere from the low-to-mid 30s up toward 37°C, feels-like near 36°C, and dewpoints again pushing into oppressive territory; a more organized round of storms looks possible. Miserable.

Friday (31-23) — 4/10: Humid but a touch closer to normal for the date; guidance disagrees on the peak, anywhere from 28°C to 34°C. About two-thirds of the ensemble now brings measurable rain, with a wetter, more organized storm risk in the mix. Rough, but at least it’s not a record-setter.

Saturday (32-21) — 4/10: Model guidance splits again, from 29°C to 33°C, with the feels-like running a couple of degrees hotter than the thermometer; a more organized round of storms is possible in the afternoon. Rough.

Sunday (30-21) — 6/10: The best day of the week — near or just under the seasonal norm, still humid but an isolated storm at most, and the coolest reading of the stretch. Decent!

The fortnight at a glance

Week two

The building ridge looks to break down by the following weekend, with the 500hPa pattern flipping from building to breaking and height anomalies swinging positive. This far out, ensemble ranges are wide — highs likely somewhere in the mid-20s to lower-30s most days, generally near or a touch below the seasonal average through the 27th before ensembles hint at a possible warm-up again around the 30th. Rain chances stay modest throughout, with precipitation probabilities mostly in the 10-35% range and only a minority of ensemble members bringing wet days — nothing that looks like a clean break in the pattern, just a gradual easing of the worst of the heat, if the ensembles are right.

Tl;dr: It’s a hot, humid, storm-prone week with Wednesday standing out as a genuinely dangerous heat day (feels-like near 39°C), so plan around midday heat and afternoon storm risk right through the weekend.

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com. Models: ecmwf_ifs025, icon_seamless, gfs_seamless, meteofrance_seamless, best_match. Generated 2026-08-16 22:32 CEST. This is a hobby forecast, not a substitute for official ARPAE / Protezione Civile warnings.