Brontoskopos

A hot, humid pattern is holding firm over the Bologna area this week, with a broad zonal flow (height anomaly a modest +27m, jet close by) doing little to dislodge the heat before it actually intensifies toward Friday. The standout feature is Friday the 28th, where guidance disagrees on just how extreme things get — anywhere from 36.1°C to a scorching 40.2°C — with a feels-like reading near 38°C even at the consensus number. That’s the peak of the week, and it’s not a close call for worst day. Behind it, a weak cool nudge tries to work in for the weekend, with Sunday standing out as the one genuinely pleasant day. It’s not a great week overall for comfort — the week’s average rating sits at 3.7/10 — mostly because afternoon dew points keep sitting in the oppressive-to-humid range even as thermometer highs stay in the mid-to-upper 30s.

Last week’s outlook ran a bit too warm on several days: the 21st was forecast near 30.7°C but only reached 26.9°C (a 3.8-degree overshoot), and the 22nd missed similarly, forecast at 31.9°C versus an observed 29.0°C. Rain verified reasonably well those two days — a 57% chance on the 21st that did bring measurable rain (8.4mm), and a 36% chance on the 22nd that brought a lighter 1.8mm. The 20th and 23rd were both close calls, off by only a degree or so.

Expect the Apennines and Alps to keep firing up isolated afternoon storms on a couple of days this week (Saturday and Tuesday), though most of the area stays dry most days — this is a heat-and-humidity week more than a rainy one.

Wednesday (33-22) — 4/10: Oppressively humid with a dew point near 22°C and a feels-like high of 34.9°C, a couple of degrees above the actual 32.9°C. Sticky and rough, even without rain in the picture.

Thursday (36-22) — 2/10: Genuinely miserable — highs near 35.7°C running about 6 degrees above normal for the date, with a feels-like value near 37.3°C thanks to a dew point around 22°C. This is a heat day through and through.

Friday (37-24) — 1/10: The week’s low point, and it’s the heat that does it. Confidence is low with guidance split sharply, anywhere from 36.1°C to as high as 40.2°C, and even the consensus feels-like value sits near 38°C. However this one shakes out, it’s an extreme-heat day and the score reflects that squarely.

Saturday (35-24) — 4/10: Still warm and noticeably humid, with an isolated storm or two possible off the higher ground in the afternoon. Not a disaster, but the heat and stickiness keep it rough.

Sunday (34-21) — 7/10: The pick of the week — dew points drop into comfortable territory near 15°C, winds stay light, and rain chances are minimal. Genuinely nice, if still warm by the numbers!

Monday (35-22) — 4/10: Warm again with a noticeable humidity bump, feels-like near 36°C versus an actual high of 34.5°C. Comfortable it is not.

Tuesday (34-21) — 4/10: Confidence is low here, with guidance spread wide (as low as 24.7°C to as high as 34.3°C) and an isolated storm or two possible in the afternoon. Humid air lingers, and a touch of rain (around 0.3mm) shows up in the median.

The fortnight at a glance

Week two

The building signal into days 8-14 points toward a ridge strengthening further (height anomaly nearly +77m, well above this week’s already-elevated +27m), which argues for the warm-and-humid theme persisting rather than breaking down. That said, this far out confidence is low across the board — likely highs cluster in the high-20s to low-30s range on most days, with a wide tail toward the mid-30s on a few of them, and rain chances hover in the 8-24% range without a clearly wetter or drier signal emerging yet. If the ensembles are right, expect the ridge to keep the pattern warm into early September, but treat any specific number this far out with real caution.

Tl;dr: It’s a hot, sticky week with Friday standing out as a genuinely dangerous heat day (up to 40°C possible), while Sunday offers the one comfortable break — plan accordingly and don’t skip the sunscreen or the shade.

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com. Models: ecmwf_ifs025, icon_seamless, gfs_seamless, meteofrance_seamless, best_match. Generated 2026-08-25 10:54 CEST. This is a hobby forecast, not a substitute for official ARPAE / Protezione Civile warnings.