Brontoskopos

Warning: this outlook did not pass automated fact-checking against the underlying data. Read with extra skepticism.

A predominantly zonal flow pattern sits over the Po Valley this week — flat, fast westerlies with the jet running nearby, and it’s actually building slightly stronger as the days go on. That keeps the heat locked in and rain chances mostly capped, save for a couple of afternoons where isolated storms can sneak off the Apennines. It’s not until the second week that the flow reorganises into something more like a proper ridge.

Last week’s outlook ran a bit warm against what actually happened: forecast highs overshot the observed by anywhere from 0.8°C to 3.1°C across the four verified days, with the biggest miss on 27 August (forecast 35.7°C, observed 32.6°C) and the smallest on 29 August (forecast 34.5°C, observed 33.7°C). Rain call verified fine — chances were kept low all four days and essentially nothing fell.

This is a rough week overall for comfort — the average score sits at just 4.9/10 — bookended by two separate flirtations with 35°C+ heat (Friday and Saturday) and a humid, storm-flecked start, with Thursday standing out as the one genuinely pleasant day thanks to a real drop in dewpoint. Tuesday deserves a specific flag: the feels-like high runs a full 3°C above the actual thermometer reading (32.8°C actual vs. 35.8°C apparent), so it’ll feel noticeably worse than the number on the forecast suggests.

Monday (35-23) — 4/10: Topping out around 35°C with a humid, sticky feel — feels-like climbs to 36°C. No rain expected, but the heat and humidity combo makes this a rough one.

Tuesday (33-21) — 4/10: Confidence is low here — guidance disagrees, with highs anywhere from 31°C to 35°C, and the feels-like temperature (nearly 36°C) running well above the actual high. Humid again, and an isolated storm or two can’t be ruled out in the afternoon; roughly a sixth of the ensemble brings measurable rain.

Wednesday (32-21) — 6/10: Still humid, but a step up from the first two days — highs near 32°C, with an isolated storm or two possible off the Apennines in the afternoon. Decent enough.

Thursday (33-20) — 8/10: The pick of the week — humidity finally eases back, topping out around 33°C with no convective flag on the board. Genuinely nice!

Friday (35-21) — 4/10: Heat is the story here, likely near 35°C with the feels-like a touch higher — comfortable humidity doesn’t save the score once you’re bumping the 35°C mark.

Saturday (36-20) — 4/10: The hottest day of the stretch, likely near 36°C with a feels-like around 36°C as well — humidity drops off, but at this heat that hardly matters for comfort.

Sunday (35-21) — 4/10: Confidence is low and guidance splits sharply — anywhere from 30°C to 35°C, with the feels-like running toward 36°C on the warm end. Another rough one regardless of exactly where it lands.

The fortnight at a glance

Week two

The building ridge aloft (a stronger height anomaly than this week’s zonal setup) looks to dominate days 8-14, though confidence is low this far out and the spread is wide throughout. Early in that window (around 7-8 September) ensemble medians still sit in the mid-30s, but by the back half (around 12-13 September) the p50 guidance eases into the upper 20s, hinting the heat may finally break — if the ensembles are right. Rain chances also creep up through the period, from roughly 13-14% probability early on toward the low-to-mid 20s by mid-period, so a wetter turn isn’t out of the question, but nothing is locked in yet.

Tl;dr: Expect another hot, often humid week with two separate pushes near or above 35°C (Friday and Saturday) around a genuinely pleasant Thursday — dress for heat and stickiness most days, with only isolated storm chances Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com. Models: ecmwf_ifs025, icon_seamless, gfs_seamless, meteofrance_seamless, best_match. Generated 2026-08-30 07:05 CEST. This is a hobby forecast, not a substitute for official ARPAE / Protezione Civile warnings.